Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 167.318390 201.851817 244.313645 301.274432 377.119843 4.767885e+02 6.214586e+02
2025-04-13 123.302593 161.533349 214.264701 295.131945 421.568216 6.225000e+02 9.920268e+02
2025-04-20 106.783297 148.870960 212.335992 320.973811 516.556528 8.891461e+02 1.770979e+03
2025-04-27 94.965424 138.879413 209.907340 343.008715 614.009042 1.226447e+03 3.119767e+03
2025-05-04 85.460785 129.861704 205.907824 359.783536 709.442742 1.640441e+03 5.487434e+03
2025-05-11 77.383514 121.338839 200.295494 370.960722 799.036480 2.134155e+03 9.733102e+03
2025-05-18 70.057237 112.678400 192.288852 374.210315 871.833562 2.671960e+03 1.717321e+04
2025-05-25 63.151682 103.611038 181.554668 367.863665 915.843401 3.177627e+03 2.929676e+04
2025-06-01 57.047869 95.128690 170.381363 357.180533 942.161675 3.665531e+03 4.989746e+04
2025-06-08 51.848794 87.671329 160.035297 345.717931 960.995189 4.171430e+03 8.821473e+04
2025-06-15 50.809907 88.119174 166.594503 380.886548 1173.463315 6.427344e+03 4.956809e+05
2025-06-22 47.717546 84.038614 162.352581 384.717263 1268.302515 8.214680e+03 3.013721e+06
2025-06-29 45.430195 81.481177 161.549618 399.969683 1437.077766 1.174587e+04 5.288459e+10
2025-07-06 42.146986 76.460446 154.108844 392.498145 1493.672486 1.446367e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 41.413929 76.796809 159.822411 430.608178 1846.041418 2.653685e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 40.370661 76.306418 163.366880 463.259645 2226.628613 5.020339e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 39.050320 75.019717 164.585325 488.277185 2609.791036 9.736933e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 37.528591 73.085175 163.700774 505.029889 2972.128604 1.937759e+05 NaN
2025-08-10 35.764768 70.387328 160.229855 509.913242 3249.062641 3.732848e+05 NaN
2025-08-17 33.748228 66.888462 153.935559 500.381775 3371.665496 6.268416e+05 NaN
2025-08-24 31.737945 63.229558 146.687941 484.388024 3405.278334 9.718857e+05 NaN
2025-08-31 29.877736 59.782260 139.632919 467.298550 3407.766905 1.495140e+06 NaN
2025-09-07 29.875711 60.900818 146.479492 519.963597 4488.872618 8.439467e+07 NaN